Asian Bank Research
& Consultancy Services
Exclusive Research By
ASIAN BANK RESEARCH, WITHOUT THE NOISE.
We provide research and consultancy on banks. Our focus is on what we call “Bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements. Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks.
Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics.
That earlier sale plan “further begs the question of why UOB should lob a good S$360 million into the nationalized entity, said Daniel Tabbush,
an analyst who publishes on the Smartkarma research platform.
“UOB must find themselves in a difficult situation,” Tabbush added.
Bloomberg, Jan 10 2020 By Chanyaporn Chanjaroen
Daniel Tabbush has 25 years experience analyzing Asia-Pacific banks, including HSBC, Standard Chartered, Japanese and Australian banks. At the same time, his research and consulting focuses on global banking issues, including the regulatory environment. He was the Head of Asian Bank research at the number one Asian brokerage CLSA for most of his career, overseeing coverage of 80 banks and 10 analysts in Asia-Pacific.
He has been highly ranked by Asiamoney, The Asset and Bloomberg, as well as by institutional investors focused on Asia. He continues to appear in press interviews with TVB in Hong Kong, and has appeared on CNBC in the past. He maintains an information-sharing agreement with Dr. Jim Walker of Asianomics, the foremost economist in Asia-Pacific, and Tabbush was an invited speaker on Asian banks at the Independent Research Summit in Hong Kong, during years 2013 and 2014.
Daniel started his own independent bank research and consultancy in 2012, under the banner name Tabbush Report. Since 2014, he has been a member of University of California San Diego Economics Leadership Council (ELC), supporting Economic students at the University through this alumni association, and providing guidance on Economics program develoment. Daniel grew up in Los Angeles, graduated from UCSD in Economics, cum laude and with Phi Beta Kappa honors. He lives with his family in Bangkok, and enjoys cooking, running and chess.
Single page, short concise note on a bank, a country or regional analysis.
Longer note, approximately six to twelve pages, including more detail, charts, tables, focusing on a single bank, a thematic idea, a country or regional analysis.
An agreed upon research report, suggested by client, which can include detailed bank report, country analysis or regional comparative, analysis.
Pre-arranged conference call to discuss Asian banks.
A typical annual package will include at least 10-15 Espresso notes, 6-12 Tabbush Reports, several hours of conference calls. Bespoke Research can be worked into package.
Member of Independent Research Forum (IRF)
ASIAN BANK RESEARCH, WITHOUT THE NOISE.
Benign bad loan trends belie surging impairment costs
Many banks in Asia are seeing surging credit costs and despite more meagre growth in bad loans. This is also occurring with banks that have seen little in the way of new lending, including Japan. It is no longer enough to focus on bad loan formation when forecasting, understanding provision expenses.
Some may argue that this is due to new accounting regulation IFRS 9, which requires banks to take total expected credit losses (ECL) over the life of a bad loan.
Chailease is a proven, profitable leasing alternative to banks. It is a Taiwan-based multi-sector lease financing company, operating in Taiwan, China and Asean countries primarily.The company has a rich history of lease financing, beginning in 1977, with a proven track record of investing in specialized subsidiaries. The best evidence of the company’s ability to well manage its growing business is its rising ROA from 2.3% to 3.8%, from 2011 through the twelve months to 3Q18. Where Chailease impresses more is with ROE where it ranks 2nd highest in the region at 25.0%.
The tapestry of China bank malaise typically threads its way through corporate indebtedness, weak financial metrics and slowing economic growth.
We doubt there are many non-believers regarding risks facing corporate China and China’s banks. What may be less clear is how growth in city commercial bank NPLs is soaring, compared with more mainstream commercial banks, or that the distribution of NPLs is worsening toward more loss and doubtful loans.
It is easy to be lulled into a false sense of confidence with HSBC Holdings (HSBC). This is especially the case when looking at headline figures for impaired loans. Its reported problem loans are down
dramatically over the past several quarters. And yet despite this, its credit costs as a percentage of loans are driving higher. Figures were at a record low of 7bps in 1Q18 and rose to 35bps by 4Q18.
There have been many false dawns in India during the current economic malaise. The most obvious was when the government announced a recapitalization of banks. Others include election promises or revamping of debt resolution procedures.
But it should be clearer now that without a fundamental reduction in debt, or a change in loan underwriting standards or a meaningful, sustainable resumption of top line growth, bank credit metrics are only likely to weaken.
Singapore banks have revealed a sharp decline in their pass loans over the past two months. It is not something that most normally look at, but it is telling. The pace of decline is sharp and nearly on par with bank experience during late 2015. In 3Q19 the total level of pass loans compared with total loans is lower than most quarters since 1Q09.